the dinosaur tendency

Okay, I'm straying off transport here, but it is relevant!

One of the saddest things I encounter these days is when someone who I have up to now regarded as reasonably intelligent starts spouting the old myths and denials that until about five years ago were coming from Climate Change 'sceptics'.

In the context of Peak Oil this usually involves reeling off a list of exotic (and incredibly expensive!) alternatives to cheap oil - tar sands, the Arctic, biofuels, hydrogen, electric cars etc - and assuming that technology will solve the energy crisis 'like it always does'. Tell them that we've never been in this position before and they don't get it. They've been conditioned to believe that life, ever since we emerged from the prehistoric swamps, has been an endless and exponential journey of 'progress'. Explain that this has never been the case, that it's been two steps forward and one step backwards, or that countless civilizations have completely collapsed, and again they don't get it.

Notice that nobody denies that cheap oil is running out any more. Oil at $120+ a barrel has stopped that lunacy. But too many people still believe that technology will 'save' us. They won't understand that technology itself depends on an ever-available supply of cheap oil to keep going.

But give them time. Cheap oil is now, I believe, a thing of the past. We have no choice but to totally reorder the way we live our lives to take this fact into account. We all know people that were arch Climate Change deniers just five years ago, who now are some of the biggest advocates for alleviating Climate Change. The more people think about what is happening the more they will come round and start planning for a real future, rather than one of flying cars, space travel and a worldwide middle class.

roads - an exercise in nostalgia

Roads today - congested, full of untrained drivers, expensive and killing the atmosphere ...



Already a common sight, and becoming commoner.



Soon those of us left with the means will have little choice but to use one of these.



What will replace roads.

Roads are an endangered species, not just cars, lorries and buses. Very few people seem to have twigged this yet, even within Transition. The problem is that roads need a certain level of traffic to make them viable. Within a few years traffic will have fallen off so far thanks to Peak Oil that in most cases it will not be economically viable to maintain roads, particularly bearing in mind that roads themselves need oil to be built and maintained. There will be a vicious downward spiral as more and more cars lay idle in drives and as the clamours for reinstated rail get louder and louder. The tax take will fall and roads will begin to fall into disrepair. Soon many will only be suitable for 4x4s - ironically! Some roads will be converted to railways, others to cycleways or bridleways, but most will simply vanish.

This is why I believe there is no long term future for any form of powered road transport as the oil runs out. There is no way the alternatives, even if they can be made to work economically, would ever be on the same scale as the internal combustion engine. There will be a point when government will have to take the unpopular step of closing roads. So talk of biodiesel, fuel cells and electric cars will all fall at this hurdle, even if it were possible to produce small quantities of them (and find the raw materials, energy and skills to build them) there will be nowhere for them to run.

The land transport future is clearly walking, cycling, horse, light rail (electric) and heavy rail (electric and steam). Transport policy has to revolve around these options, assigning any others to the pages of the petroleum interlude history books.

Tavistock gets ready to rejoin the network

1972 - old rails and a southern green sign - and no trains to Callington!


1972 - Bere Alston.


1972 - the current branch destination, Gunnislake.


1973 - Bow station on the section towards Exeter.

There is a real buzz in Tavistock as reinstatement of their railway, closed 40 years ago, comes even closer to fruition. The deal is that 750 homes get built alongside the line with the route reinstated back to Bere Alston. The cost is a mere £18.5 million, and much of this is for legal arrangements etc. The actual cost of physical restoration of the line is a good deal lower. The road from Tavistock down to Plymouth is a nightmare in the rush hour, this really is a no-brainer.

Of course the route never should have closed in the first place. As well as serving both Tavistock and Okehampton the Plymouth-Exeter line was very useful as a diversionary route when the vulnerable coastal route between Dawlish and Teignouth was blocked. This is now a regular occurence with sea level rise. When the route is blocked then most of Devon and Cornwall is cut off from the rest of the country. The closure was also particularly stupid as much of the line remained in any case - the stretch from Plymouth to Bere Alston for the Gunnislake trains, and the stretch from Crediton to Okehampton for passengers trains (to 1972, since reinstated) and beyond to Meldon for freight. What were they thinking of? And why cut Tavistock off just for the sake of a few miles?

Of course with Tavistock in the bag talk is now of rebuilding the whole route. I suspect that within ten years serious consideration will also be given to restoring the Teign Valley route (Exeter to Newton Abbot) to provide yet another alternative to the coastal route. This route is hardly likely to be able to cope with future traffic even WITHOUT Peak Oil - with most of us forced out of our cars within the next ten years it can't come a minute too soon!

And how long before Bude, Padstow, Bideford and Ilfracombe are clamouring for the return of their trains?