the dinosaur tendency

Okay, I'm straying off transport here, but it is relevant!

One of the saddest things I encounter these days is when someone who I have up to now regarded as reasonably intelligent starts spouting the old myths and denials that until about five years ago were coming from Climate Change 'sceptics'.

In the context of Peak Oil this usually involves reeling off a list of exotic (and incredibly expensive!) alternatives to cheap oil - tar sands, the Arctic, biofuels, hydrogen, electric cars etc - and assuming that technology will solve the energy crisis 'like it always does'. Tell them that we've never been in this position before and they don't get it. They've been conditioned to believe that life, ever since we emerged from the prehistoric swamps, has been an endless and exponential journey of 'progress'. Explain that this has never been the case, that it's been two steps forward and one step backwards, or that countless civilizations have completely collapsed, and again they don't get it.

Notice that nobody denies that cheap oil is running out any more. Oil at $120+ a barrel has stopped that lunacy. But too many people still believe that technology will 'save' us. They won't understand that technology itself depends on an ever-available supply of cheap oil to keep going.

But give them time. Cheap oil is now, I believe, a thing of the past. We have no choice but to totally reorder the way we live our lives to take this fact into account. We all know people that were arch Climate Change deniers just five years ago, who now are some of the biggest advocates for alleviating Climate Change. The more people think about what is happening the more they will come round and start planning for a real future, rather than one of flying cars, space travel and a worldwide middle class.