Time to revisit Sussex reopening study

Monday, 09 July 2012 10:52

With no practical long-term solutions on the horizon coming from Network Rail or the Department for Transport, London is on the fast track towards a major transport crisis on southern routes into the capital.  A warning over the looming predicament was recently sent to both co-chairmen of the Conservative party, Baroness Warsi and Lord Feldman by a Tunbridge Wells supporter of BML2. Seeking advice, the DfT has offered nothing, apart from lengthening some services using the additional fleet ordered by the last Labour Government. Defending the coalition Government’s weak stance, DfT spokesman John Ashley said: “A promoter of BML2 will need to address the challenge of how additional trains could reach central London stations. The promoter will also need to demonstrate that the project is deliverable, affordable, value for money for the taxpayer and identify sources of funding for the capital cost of construction.” Only last Friday, BBC TV and Brighton’s Argus newspaper reported that train overcrowding in Sussex and Kent is worsening, as revealed by new figures from the DfT, although commuters hardly need telling this. Rail watchdog, Passenger Focus, acknowledged that trains are increasingly operating above their capacity with overcrowding remaining a daily struggle for commuters into London, whilst a spokesman considered: “Significant, sustained, long-term investment is necessary to not only reduce overcrowding, but to ensure that it doesn’t get worse if passenger numbers increase as predicted.” Unfortunately, those given charge of managing the rail network seem completely incapable of providing answers, whilst Network Rail’s Sussex Strategy offers no hope: “By around 2020 high peak crowding will still exist in the area at roughly today’s levels - the interventions [train lengthening] mostly absorbing growth rather than substantially improving existing crowding.” Informed sources believe this to be a serious under-estimation as rising demand accelerates beyond predictions. A Southern spokesman said: “We appreciate passengers’ desire for a seat on what are very busy services and we are doing everything that we can to provide additional capacity where it is most needed, bearing in mind we have a finite amount of rolling stock and the very high demand at peak times.” However, Labour’s Lord Bassam was distinctly unimpressed, saying: “Sussex commuters don’t just need extra seats on longer trains – we need additional route capacity across the south.”  An increasing reliance on just one core route between London and Brighton is at the root of the problem and the strain is becoming ever more evident.  Without a phased plan to restore the parallel Uckfield mainline, which spiralled into decline following the axing of Brighton connection in 1969, there can be no meaningful rail expansion south of London. Redoubling of restrictive single-line sections, infill electrification and reopening southwards for more capacity between the South Coast and the capital are urgently needed, as Norman Baker said quite recently. However, all the while the DfT refuses to listen; people will railhead across to the Brighton Line.  The DfT argues “longer journey times” are reason to do nothing, but this is entirely unfounded. Furthermore, even if journeys were marginally longer, by five or ten minutes, the benefits far outweigh any misconceived disadvantage.  Only last Saturday, Tim Worstall writing for the right wing Adam Smith Institute, questioned the economic case for high speed rail. Whilst we have no strong opinion either way on this issue, we were struck by some of the valid points he made with regard to ordinary train travel – which is what most people can afford and have to endure every day.  Interestingly, Mr Worstall criticised those cost benefit analyses used by the DfT to assess rail projects, commendably pointing out that the case technology has changed. “Time spent stuck in a car really is unproductive; on a train, not.” he argues, suggesting that with on-train wireless internet and WiFi equipped carriages, the whole analysis changes and the Government really does need to catch up. “If people are productive while in a train then the benefit of getting them there faster disappears.” He concludes: “I have a feeling that doing these calculations properly will lead to something of a change in how we think about rail transport. It could well be that this all makes more local, regional, commuter, lines viable while reducing the case for high speed long distance passenger lines.”   Quite obviously, we want train journeys to and from work to be as speedy as possible, but here in the crowded south-east corner we face many problems such as the sheer intensity of services which have to operate on a very complicated network, insufficient seating (even standing room), as well as the rapid descent into chaos when something goes wrong. Four years on, we hear that some Network Rail managers consider the 2008 Lewes-Uckfield Reinstatement Study is out of date. This claimed that, with the introduction of the ‘Seven Day Railway’, planned closures of the Brighton Line south of Croydon in excess of 8 hours would occur only twice a year. Because of this, it deduced: “no such benefit has been accrued to the business case for diversions resulting from planned engineering works”. No allowance was made for other circumstances, such as the calamitous occasions we’ve recently witnessed when unforeseen incidents at Croydon, Horley, Gatwick, Balcombe, etc, have closed the vulnerable route with no practical alternative. Unquestionably, substantial amounts of additional capacity into London remains the principal reasons for BML2, but it gives us huge opportunities to expand and strengthen the network for the 2020s. As Lord Bassam said, following the latest chaotic incident last Friday involving a failed train north of Brighton, “BML2 would help take some of the pressure off BML1 and ensure that when there are disruptions to the network there is at least one extra pathway through to the south.” Time for Network Rail to look again at its Study? An increasing number of people think so.   Hmmm. Why is it that the dinosaurs can't see the obvious solution staring them in the face? Of course there needs to be extra capacity into the London stations, but perhaps it's time to build a couple of new routes and stations in London itself?   I suspect that once Uckfield-Lewes is rebuilt (obviously it will be) the route will soon reach capacity. Then it will be time to look to the Horsham-Shoreham line, another excellent alternative line which was double tracj throughout and would have the advantage of serving a number of good sized commuter towns, currently without modern transport links. And the Eridge-Polegate line should also be reopened ASAP as then many London-Eastbourne trains could be diverted this way, easing at least some congestion south of South Croydon.   It's clear that south of London into Sussex there needs to be a complete culture change by the wimps who currently decide things. A proper electrified rail network with plenty of alternative options using state-of-the-art trains - which will not only ease commuter traffic into London but will provide loads of traffic in between towns on the new network.